Quiet Week

Looks like it's going to be a very quiet week as far as in play football goes. I'm hoping that Saturday's international games don't kick off too late as I've got a party to go to and would hate to miss out on some betting because of it.

I suppose at least there's another round of internationals to look forward to next Wednesday, then back to La Liga the following weekend.

With Big Brother 8 (I know it's not sport!) starting tomorrow I think there may be a bit of money to be won, but I'll see how it goes.

Game 9

Game 9: Norwegian Tippeligaen - Lillestrom vs Stabaek

Things got a bit hairy on this one!

Layed the draw for £38.89 at odds of 4.1 - total liability of £120.56

Lillestrom had won their opening 3 home games, scoring 10 goals in the process. I'd hoped that despite Stabaek being in 5th place at the start of play, Lillestrom would be too strong for them.

For the 3rd game in a row today it was 0-0 at half time. Then just as I was preparing to take another hefty loss Stabaek scored in the 64th minute. Just as the odds were settling after the goal, betting was suspended again. This normally means that there has been a goal or some other major occurrence. Neither of the live score websites that I use were showing a change in the score, and still betting was suspended. It stayed like this for about 5 minutes, with me not having a clue what was happening. When betting came back to life it was clear that no goal had been scored, so I quickly backed the draw for £43.68 at 3.65 for a loss of £3.88

Seconds later Lillestrom equalised! The game finished 1-1 which goes to show that sometimes you're best to settle for a small loss.

Game 8

I'm an idiot sometimes! Having said yesterday that I thought Sparta Prague were a good bet for today I bottled it - didn't want to put it on while my liability on the playoff final was still outstanding. Prague went on to stuff Most 5-0 having scored twice in the 1st 10 minutes.

Game 8: Norwegian Tippeligaen - Odd Grenland Skien vs SK Brann Bergen

Layed the draw pre kickoff for £40.13 at odds of 3.95 - total liability £118.39

Bottom against 2nd, must be a good bet. Sigurdsson scored after 58 minutes for Brann. It took a while for the draw odds to get anywhere decent but I eventually backed the draw for £31.71 at 5.0 for a guaranteed profit of £8.00

A few minutes later Brann added a 2nd and it finshed 2-0.

Game 7

By the time it came to bet on this one I must admit I wasn't 100% convinced, but in the end I trusted my initial judgement and went for it.

Game 7: Championship Playoff Final - Derby vs West Brom

Layed the draw pre kickoff for £47.42 at odds of 3.45 - total liability £116.19

I was a tad concerned after a goalless 1st half, then West Brom really started to get a grip on the game and it seemed only a matter of time before they scored.

Sure enough they couldn't hit a barn door and Derby went down the other end and scored (Pearson, 61 mins)!

I quickly backed the draw for £38.86 at an average of 4.21 for a guaranteed profit of £8.19

Derby held on for a 1-0 win and a place in the Premiership next season.

Game 6

My 3rd La Liga game of the night has helped me make up for yesterday's Scottish mess.

Game 6: La Liga, Spain - Sevilla vs Zaragoza

Despite there only being a couple of league places between these, with Sevilla still in with a chance of the title I was optimistic that they'd be gunning for a win here.

Layed the draw pre kickoff for £37.76 at odds of 4.0, a liability of £113.29

It took Sevilla just under 30 minutes to go a goal up through Fabiano, allowing me to back the draw for £26.50 at 5.7 - a guaranteed profit of £10.70

After looking like they'd blown it in the 2nd half with a missed penalty and a Zaragoza equaliser, Sevilla scored twice in the last 10 minutes to earn the 3 points and stay within 2 points of Real and Barca.

Looks like there are another 2 or 3 games worthy of a punt tomorrow so hopefully they'll go as well as today's. I can't see the Championship play off final being goalless (West Brom have only failed to score twice in 30 odd games) and Sparta Prague look a good bet at home to Most.

Game 5

I like Spanish football - it also helps that Sky show a lot of it.

Game 5: La Liga, Spain - Gimnastic vs Atletico Madrid

Despite Atletico being hammered 6-0 at home to Barca last week I figured they'd still be a safe bet away to bottom club Gimnastic.

Layed the draw pre kickoff for £35.61 at odds of 4.1, giving a total liability of £110.39

Striker Fernando Torres put Madrid ahead after 12 minutes so I backed the draw straight away for £24.33 at odds of 6.0 to give a guaranteed profit of £10.70

Torres added a 2nd from the penalty spot in the 55th minute to seal a 2-0 win for Madrid.

Game 4

A slightly different approach on this one. I had been hoping to get home in time to lay the draw on Copenhagen's game, but instead didn't get here 'til 4:30.

Game 4: La Liga, Spain - Osasuna vs Real Sociedad

A few minutes after I got home (33 mins gone in the game) Osasuna went 2-0 up at home to Real Sociedad but the draw odds were still floating between 5 & 6. I found this a bit odd as Osasuna are a few places above Sociedad and were playing at home.

I layed the draw for £22.50 at odds of 5.8 - a total liability of £108.

At various stages in the 2nd half I considered greening up, but ended up letting the bet run. A goalless 2nd half resulted in a profit of £21.37

By the way, Copenhagen drew 0-0!!

More Info ...

So, how am I deciding how much to lay on the draw at the start of the game? I didn't want to lump my whole balance on each game so I opted for making my liability 30% of my total balance, so the higher my balance the more I bet. Don't ask where the 30% figure came from - I just made it up.

Girls Aloud

Thankfully the loss on the Scottish FA Cup Final was forgotten about after a trip to see Girls Aloud at Wembley Arena. 2nd row seats provided a great view :)

Game 3

Note to self ... Don't bet on Scottish football again.

Game 3: Scottish FA Cup Final - Celtic vs Dunfirmline

As expected, champions Celtic were hot favourites to beat relegated Dunfirmline so I layed the draw pre kickoff for £19.88 at odds of 6.8, for a total liability of £115.30.

I've not watched much Scottish football, and now I think I know why ... it's crap. The quality of control and passing was absolutely appalling. I realise the English FA Cup final was a dire affair too, but at least there you knew the teams were actually capable of better if they tried. This lot didn't have a clue.

Anyway, with no goals after 72 minutes I couldn't risk the £115 liability any longer and had to settle for a loss.

Backed the draw for £61.44 at odds of 2.22 for a guaranteed loss of £39.68

Having done this I suppose it was inevitable that someone would score. Sure enough Celtic scraped a winner after 85 minutes.

Not the end of the world - I knew I'd have some games like this - I just need to keep them to a minimum!

Game 2

Hmmm, betting on an England game - am I sure this is a good idea? Only time will tell ...

Game 2: International Friendly - England B vs Albania

England were hot favourites to win this one so the draw odds were fairly long from the start.

Layed the draw pre kickoff for £22.98 at odds of 5.8 for a total liability of £110.29

To their credit Albania looked reasonably stable at the back early on, and in Berisha had a genuine threat on goal. It was fairly tight for half an hour, but then 2 goals in a few minutes from Smith and Downing settled England's nerves (and mine!).

Draw backed for £3.51 at odds of 38 for a guaranteed profit of £18.50

Perfect timing with the betting as the dangerous Berisha scored a cracker on the stroke of half time.

As I write, England lead 3-1 after a second goal from Downing.

Game 1

In typical fashion I've managed to start using a system for football betting at the end of the football season. Apart from a few summer leagues and internationals I'm going to be quite restricted with what I can bet on until August but I'll make use of whatever opportunities I get.

Only 3 in play games tonight, thankfully 2 of them look like games that I can bet on.

Game 1: Norwegian Tippeligaen - Start vs Strømsgodset

Layed the draw pre kickoff for £33.94 at odds of 4.2 giving me a total liability of £108.61

To be honest I was expecting a home win here, so imagine my surprise when after 10 minutes Peter Kovacs gave Strømsgodset the lead. After the goal the odds on the draw went down to around 3.6 so as the goal had come so early I decided to hold fire before betting again. This turned out to be a good move as 3 minutes later Kovacs doubled their lead. Odds on the draw then went to 5.2 so I figured it was time to green up.

Draw backed for £27.41 at odds of 5.2 giving a guaranteed profit of £6.20

Start went on to pull back level before Kovacs completed his hat-trick in the last minute to win it for Strømsgodset.

The System

The system takes advantage of the features on the Betfair website which lets you place a 'lay' bet on a result (betting against something happening) and allows you bet on certain events while they are 'in play'.

I'm carefully selecting football matches from Betfair's 'in play' list where I'm confident of the favourites scoring first. Before the kickoff I'm placing a lay bet on the draw (betting that it won't be a draw). The idea is that when the favourites score, the odds on the draw increase, so by backing the draw for the same stake as the previous lay bet I'm guaranteed a profit if the game goes to a draw, but without being able to lose any money if either team wins.

From this position it's then possible to 'green up', using some of the draw profit to guarantee a payout whatever the result.

I probably haven't explained that very well but I'm sure all will become clear once you see the results coming in.

Intro ...

I figure there must be a better way of making a living than going to work for 9 hours a day for the next 30 years. I've always liked a bet here and there but now I think it's time to take it seriously - There's money out there to be made and I want my share of it. Over the past year I've tried several systems and schemes with varied levels of success, but now I think I've hit upon a winner. I've been trialling this one for just over a month and have a really good feeling about it, so as of tonight it gets serious. I've knocked up a spreadsheet to track my progress and will post all my results on here. I'll explain more about the system I'm using as I go on. Watch this space ...